David Hoang — Writing — technology

The four types of software in the future

Sun, 16 Jul 2023 00:00:00 GMT

When you think of high-end or boutique design, the fashion industry likely comes to mind before software. Take something like a T-shirt. You can find a $10 version of it on a shelf at Target or spend hundreds (if not thousands) of dollars on one at a Louis Vuitton runway show. It might feel weird to think of software at first ponder, but this is where the world is heading. Could you imagine exclusive software? It's very possible in the future. What about software that gets thrown away like a daily-use contact lens? Also possible.

There are forces of nature changing the landscape of software development that are going to change how we make software. With that, the type of software created will have a different shelf life, purpose, and level of quality. Let’s reflect on the forces of nature that are impacting this before covering what I think are four types of software in the future.

Software barrier is lower

I put "easier" in quotes because of the subjectivity (perhaps “approachable” is a more appropriate word). Whether it's no-code or writing lines of code, these two worlds are colliding. This is one of the reasons I joined Replit. If you have an internet browser, you can build software.

More people have access to creating and publishing software than ever, and that's a great thing. I believe the best ideas that will change the world might not come from "the best" developers, but from ambitious individuals who hack something together to take an idea and turn it into something tangible.

Accessible endpoints and models

It's not to say that nobody is ever going to have a database in their software anymore, but there are more reasons to not need one. As the world of software creation shifts with more access to endpoints, APIs, and language models, this might result in more emphasis on client-side apps. Let's take Threads, an Instagram company (a Meta company), which launched this month. There seem to be plans to integrate the Twitter clone with ActivityPub, a decentralized protocol also used by Mastodon.

This essentially means you can weave federated experiences into one. There is a world where you experience the same content but through multiple apps. We are entering the Twitter clone saga with Bluesky, T2 (no relation to Terminator 2: Judgment Day, unfortunately), Posts, Substack Notes, and Threads. If all of these apps used ActivityPub, having unique client-side application experiences doesn't matter. "Apps" as we are accustomed to feel more like views.

Distribution is nearly immediate

In its early days, software distribution looked more like how we delivered physical goods than it does today. When a developer released software, it came in a box along with the floppy disk(s) and instruction manual for you to get started. Deploying software no longer needs to be written on a physical disk and can be nearly immediate. There will still be a world relying on platforms to distribute software (such as the Apple App Store or Google Play for iOS and Android apps) but there are now opportunities to go direct with other software built.

The four types of software

The forces of nature above will result in four types of software: Commercial, Boutique, Personal, and Disposable.

Commercial

This category is the majority of what we know today. It's enterprise software, CRMs, and administrative applications we interact with. It's purchased through a subscription or the elusive one-time purchase with a license. Typically, commercial software is provided to you by your employer. Another sub-category is software created by entities for administrative reasons, such as government websites. The category of this software might feel basic—enough to get a job done.

I don't need amazing parallax scrolling and animations when trying to renew my driver's license. I just need to get it done. It just needs to work. This is the same with data entry in a CRM or other tasks most people need to get done at work—a humbling reminder that the majority of humanity doesn't use Figma in their day-to-day (we're a unique bunch).

Boutique

The Louis Vuitton of software is becoming more of a real thing. As software continues to get easier to build at scale, and with everyone being able to do it, the age-old question arises...what happens to the craft? In a world of 3D-printed sculptures, Gianlorenzo Bernini's work at The Vatican lives on. As time passes, there will be Bernini's of software—having a devotion to the craft with incredible attention to detail on experiences. Be not afraid of commercial software getting rid of the craft of indie apps and high-end software. I believe in this future world, people will continue to pay for high-quality software and support the people who create it.

Personal

In the instance where Commercial or Boutique software might not meet your needs, you might make your own. Andrew Davison is an automation expert and certified Zapier partner. In June, Davison posted a tweet about how he built a RSS app with Replit. This is a prime example of personal software. It’s DIY like the hand-knitted sweater; a product achieved through your needs, passion, and own materials.

Disposable

The concept of a disposable object is interesting and can be a great design (if done right). There are disposable cameras, contact lenses, and many others. In fact, the sourdough clam chowder bowl and tostada shell are two of the best examples of great disposable design. What about software that destroys itself when a certain job is done? I see a future where people (or AI) create certain types of software for a specific purpose and dispose of them afterward.

Software is the new material

The world is now eating up software evolving to be known as an everyday thing we interact with. I'm personally excited about this future. It offers more choice and optionality in what people want. If you want to use a web browser, you can use a major player like Google Chrome, or a more boutique experience such as Arc from The Browser Company, perhaps making your own to fully customize. The Winampification of software seems to be making a comeback, and that's a good thing. I for one am excited about more personal software to make your own; a world where you can create what you consume and interact with.

Originally posted on Proof of Concept

Tech is going through a factory reset moment

Sun, 30 Apr 2023 00:00:00 GMT

Factory reset: A software restore of an electronic device to its original system state by erasing all of the data, settings, and applications that were previously stored on the device.

Whether we like it or not, tech is having a factory reset moment. This isn’t the first time. It happened in the 90s with the dot-com bubble. Companies that were once the darlings of Wall Street, such as Pets.com, Webvan, and eToys, quickly saw their stock prices plummet as investors lost faith in their ability to turn a profit. For the younger folks, Webvan was basically Instacart before Instacart.

There is never a single reason for this occurrence and multiple factors force tension like tectonic plates on the planet. Let's look at the three reasons I see as forces of nature: continued mass layoffs, the rise of AI, and recovery from the recession.

The first is all the massive layoffs happening at tech companies at various levels. According to layoffs.fyi, 629 tech companies have laid off 185,136 employees in 2023. Companies are getting absolutely gutted so the market is saturated with talent (for better or worse). Every role I’ve seen posted has thousands of applicants.

The rise of AI is the second force of nature. It seems everyone changed their web3 .xyz domains to .ai overnight. Time will tell how AI plays out in the industry, but right now, it looks like it’s here to stay. Unlike web3, AI has more understandable value props of application: generative content creation, GPTs, and LLMs. ChatGPT looks to be the first threat to search engines. In addition to continued layoffs, companies will continue looking at ways to reduce workforce size through AI.

Finally, we are still recovering from the recession that started in 2020. As I reflect from the gut (I am not an expert), it seems like we are not quite out of it yet.

What have we learned from all this? Though it's sad that people lose their jobs through layoffs, I do believe tech has become way too bloated. What began as lean teams raising just enough money for the runway became over-indexing on company size, growth, and valuations. The recession has been a humbling experience, and that humility can disappear. 2020 and 2021 are what I like to call the Clubhouse Valuation phase in tech. We over-indexed on companies that showed high value in a pandemic without considering what would happen on the road to recovery—a reminder that long-term thinking is crucial. Clubhouse, Peloton, and other companies that optimized for staying at home then dropped in 2022.

Looking at the new bloom At our Palm Springs house, we are lucky to have part of the San Jacinto Mountains be our next-door neighbor. Like many places in California, we saw much rain in February and March. We got a bit of snow and light flooding too! I noticed on our walk how many flowers are on the side of the mountains in a landscape that's usually just rocks.

Going through storms are difficult, but it is also the substance that allows new life to bloom. I truly believe we'll see good coming from these challenges moving forward. In a world where you can get laid off from what you thought was a stable job, there is no difference in the risk of being a full-time employee or starting your own thing. It's a great time to be a contractor and startup founder.

AI is often in the discussion of replacing humans completely and their job. Though it'll require learning new skills, I am optimistic it can empower people to do more of what they want. For example, I strongly believe that brand designers and people in creative will do what product designers do today. As a result, product designers might do what engineers do, and engineers may work on complex tasks. Identify the cause and effect of how these changes affect the ecosystem vs. attempting to find a direct correlation.

The factory reset has already been hit, and it's booting. It's not about good or bad, but figuring out how to move forward. The future path is unwritten, and I can't tell you what the path forward for you is. Perhaps it's time to get out of tech and work on the retirement farm. It might be leaning in on how things are shifting and finding the role and scope you're excited about.

Whenever I have to do a factory reset on my device, it's usually because something is broken or running slow. Despite not wanting to do it, I look forward to starting from scratch and figuring out what the next cycle looks like.

Originally posted on Proof of Concept